Stop steam, stop, stop collecting grey cloth! The textile printing and dyeing market has encountered "three stops", and polyester yarn stocks have reached a 5-year high! The epidemic counterattack may end this year's market ahead of schedule!
In recent days, although the weather is getting colder, the overall atmosphere of the textile market is more subtle. Many textile and printing and dyeing factories have issued holiday notices for the Spring Festival.
According to the holiday time of these dyeing factories, according to the situation of last year, this year's holiday time is much earlier than last year. It is understood that in previous years, the holiday was 14 days before the New Year, and most of this year's holiday time was before January, which was about 30 days earlier, a full 2 weeks earlier than last year. In addition to the time when the thermal power plant is shut down, more importantly, it is the contradiction between supply and demand caused by the epidemic.
When the market enters the off-season, even if work is stopped, the impact on surrounding areas will be minimal. However, in this situation, the market after the next year seems to encounter the situation of the dyeing factory explosion. Because the end of Shaoxing's control is currently determined on March 15 next year, this is already the year after, and it has entered the tradition. In the peak season "Golden Three", time waits for no one. Textile people are bound to look for printing and dyeing factories with similar prices and quality. As an order diverted from a printing and dyeing base with a production capacity of one-third of the national production capacity, this number is It's hard to imagine.
However, after the Spring Festival holiday, the workers have returned to their hometowns for the Chinese New Year. The printing and dyeing factory will encounter a situation where there is a job but a shortage of workers, and the loss of workers has already begun. Due to the frequent outbreaks of epidemics, many places are advocating in-situ. During the New Year, the homesickness of the workers far away was unstoppable, and they were afraid that they would not be able to return to their hometowns later, and their return time was earlier. How will printing and dyeing factories that lack workers and production capacity guarantee their delivery dates? Generally speaking, the dyeing factory will stop entering the warehouse and complete the orders first, so as to ease the orders in their hands. Due to the shrinkage of production orders, the printing and dyeing factories will control the production in the future. Except for a very small number of dyeing factories, they will be out of stock, and some dyeing factories are in a state of insufficient food.
On the other hand, it is understood that compared with the same period in the 2020 lunar calendar, the average operating rate of texturing and weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased by 13%-25% year-on-year. After New Year's Day, most of the weaving companies will continue to suspend production for holidays, and a small number of weaving companies with orders will have a holiday in mid-January.
Filament stocks are at a high level in the past 5 years.
The polyester load may drop further
In early December, major polyester factories jointly cut production, and the polyester load quickly dropped to 85% and then remained stable. Constrained by the epidemic's control of logistics, the raw material distribution and cargo turnover efficiency of the polyester plants in Hangzhou, Shaoxing, and Ningbo have declined, and downstream terminal demand has not improved. Some companies have reduced the burden early and even started the Spring Festival holiday. As of the week of December 17, the polyester load dropped from 85.3% to 83.8%.
From the perspective of inventory, polyester filament inventory is at a high level in the past five years. In addition, downstream companies have an early holiday, and polyester filament will face greater sales and inventory pressure in the future. Filament profits are not good, and polyester filament companies have a greater probability of subsequent negative declines. The overall inventory of bottle flakes is slowly increasing, and the operating rate is likely to be stable. Although the inventory pressure of staple fiber is the smallest, due to the poor demand of the textile terminal, it will also face the pressure of accumulation in the future, and there is a possibility of reducing the load. According to the current polyester forecasting maintenance equipment, the polyester load may be further reduced.
The counterattack of the epidemic
Or let this year`s textile market end early
The counterattack of the epidemic seems to bring this year`s textile market to an end early. After market research, some companies have stated that as the end of the year is approaching, on the one hand, weaving and clothing companies are suffering from insufficient orders, tight funds, and the spread of the new crown epidemic. Raw materials and fabrics are basically bought as they are used; on the other hand, traders in the textile market of Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are less willing to stock up before the Spring Festival, and most of them are operating with withdrawal of funds. In addition, the comprehensive upgrade of air defense in various regions has not only affected the production and orders of labor-intensive enterprises such as weaving, printing and dyeing, and clothing, but also the transportation of raw materials, grey fabrics, and fabrics is also not smooth.
With the loneliness of the market at the end of the year, the textile market may start a holiday wave next month! For textile people, it is not easy to receive orders at present. In order to prevent the problems of shortage of workers and long delivery times from being troubled again in the later period, downstream customers have to place orders as soon as possible to avoid affecting the normal delivery cycle.
